“First, credit scores, a summary metric of overall creditworthiness, decrease by modest but statistically significant amounts (~1%). We also test for evidence of pre-trends between treated/control states and find none. … Second, several measures of excessive debt increase substantially. We find a roughly 28% increase in bankruptcies and an 8% increase in debt transferred to debt collectors”
“The negative effects on investment are large relative to the sample mean. The average household invests about $360 a quarter so a $50 decrease in investment is a loss of 14%”
If this is going to work, it needs strong friction barriers to entry (drive to a bar!) and a more neutral market structure i.e. the actual stock market. You can’t have these big companies choosing losers and kicking off winners!
What I’m watching
Writing this update as I’m watching the first TGL matchup. It’s… fine? The shot clock is great, the banter isn’t too cringe. If this is going to succeed they need to get wild with the holes. Take notes from Club TFE’s design challenge!