After the recent election, I’ve been thinking about what I believe will happen over the next four years of a Trump presidency. We (humans) are very good at rationalizing and updating beliefs post-hoc, usually in a way that paints ourselves in a positive light. “Yes, of course I knew that Trump wasn’t really going to enact 30% tariffs across the board. That was just a negotiating tactic”. In an effort to keep myself honest and improve my model of the world, I’m jotting down some predictions for the next four-ish years here. Limited justification, some vague predictions, mostly vibes.
- Trump will not institute broad tariffs. People who understand what impact this will have on inflation will convince him that this is a bad idea. There will be discourse, there will be threats, he will institute tariffs on something, but not “30% across the board on all foreign imports”.
- Elon Musk and Trump will have a falling-out. More generally, the Musk-Thiel-Ramaswamy will have less influence than they were hoping.
- This is a prediction based on the general short-lived nature of most individuals who have tried to steer Trump. Less confident in this, though, as Elon holds a unique position as the richest man in the world. I think that holds more sway with Trump than most other qualifications!
- Things will get generally worse for Palestine and Ukraine, but we won’t see broader conflicts arise.
- Trump will not try to repeal the 22nd amendment or stay in power past this term.
- Deportations will increase, but not on the scale advertised (“20 million undocumented”). Birthright citizenship will remain in place.
- Judicial nominations will proceed as they were during his last term, and abortion rights will degrade in states across the country.
- The restrictions on executive power will continue to degrade, though not drastically. This is a slide that has been happening since long before Trump.